Why the Next U.S. President Should Visit Serbia

Date: November 5th 2024

Аuthors:
Andrej Cvejanov, Pupin Initiative
Petar Ivić, Pupin Initiative

Increased interest in Serbia

Serbian officials are busier than ever as the number of foreign leaders visiting Belgrade has been rapidly increasing since the beginning of the war in Ukraine. Leaders of most of the world's great powers came to Serbia since Russia invaded Ukraine, including European leaders such as Ursula von der Leyen, Emmanuel Macron, Olaf Scholz, Rejep Tayyip Erdogan, Xi Jinping... These visits demonstrate their countries' goal of strengthening their relations with Serbia - a goal which has also been pointed out by American officials.

Long time, no see

However, the last American president visited Serbia 45 years ago. Under current circumstances, a visit to Belgrade from the United States at the highest level is a natural event in the progression of the US’ and Serbia's growing partnership. On that occasion, we're going to take a step back and look at all American presidents’ visits to Belgrade. In what circumstances did they happen, and what was their impact on relations between the United States to Serbia? Almost half a century since the last American president set foot on Serbian soil, times once again call for a visit to Belgrade on the highest level and we will examine why such a visit is important both for the United States and Serbia.

Nixon and the non-aligned

Richard Nixon’s visit to Yugoslavia in October 1970 was the first official trip by a sitting U.S. president to an Eastern European socialist country, demonstrating Yugoslavia's unique position within the Cold War landscape. Nixon’s administration aimed to strengthen ties with non-aligned states in a time when conflicts raged in Vietnam, Cambodia and the Middle East. Maintaining peaceful relations with the non-aligned can also be viewed as a broader part of Nixon's policy of détente and cooling of tensions on the global level.

Ford in Yugoslavia

Nixon's successor Gerald Ford visited Yugoslavia in 1975, when the Middle East was a point of contention, and the U.S. valued Yugoslavia’s potential role in mediating conflicts through its policy of non-alignment. Ford and Tito reaffirmed mutual respect for Yugoslavia’s non-aligned stance and independence. Ford also addressed economic collaboration and military support for Yugoslavia, including aid that could strengthen Yugoslavia's defense capabilities independently of the Eastern or Western blocs.

Carter's missteps

Yugoslav-American relations were on an upward trajectory in the early 70s, but President Jimmy Carter set the tone for the future decline of relations with Yugoslavia with two significant mistakes. First, while campaigning for the presidency in 1976, Carter declared that he would not come to the aid of Yugoslavia in case of a Soviet attack. As Vice President Walter Mondale later said, "We worked for almost three years to correct that mistake.”

Yugoslav leadership felt ignored by the U.S. in a time marked with increasing tensions in the world and the end of the detenté. Yugoslavia's growing mistrust was exacerbated in 1980, when Carter missed the funeral of Josip Broz Tito. Renowned diplomat and U.S. Ambassador to Yugoslavia Lawrence Eagleburger and Carter's aides had urged the president's attendance at Tito's funeral several times in the months since Tito became seriously ill, but Carter decided not to go. Instead, the funeral was attended by Vice President Mondale, Treasury Secretary G. William Miller and the president's mother Lillian heading a delegation of 25 people.

Tito's funeral

Funeral of Josip Broz Tito was one of the largest state funerals in recent history. Delegations from 128 countries attended, with 209 statesmen, including four kings, 31 presidents, and 6 princes, as well as prime ministers and ministers from many nations. Leaders such as Margaret Thatcher, Kim Il Sung, Helmut Schmidt, Indira Gandhi and Saddam Hussein were present, illustrating Yugoslavia and Tito's strong and diverse international standing. Carter's absence was widely criticized in the United States, with George H.W. Bush stated that it "inferentially slams Yugoslavs at the time that country has pulled away from the Soviet Union”. Carter was also criticized by his European allies, while Yugoslav leadership especially felt slighted and offended by Carter's absence. Surprising attendance by the Soviet leader Leonid Brezhnev worsened the damage caused by Carter not coming to Belgrade, as the Soviets were more proactive in getting closer to the post-Tito Yugoslavia.

Carter in Belgrade

President Carter visited Belgrade less than two months later and paid respects at Tito's grave, but his belated visit can be described as inconsequential. Yugoslavia lost much of its international pull in the years following Tito's death due to political and economic instability, while Ronald Reagan's administration had its priorities elsewhere. 45 years after Carter's visit, not a single sitting American president visited Belgrade. It would be an understatement to say that relations between Belgrade and Washington were turbulent in decades following Carter's visit. However, today, almost half a century since an American president visited Belgrade, global circumstances once again call for another presidential trip to Belgrade.

Where are we now?

Serbia is positioning itself as a pivotal regional actor capable of promoting stability in a part of the world that has been called a powder keg for centuries. This is backed by increased American and European efforts to integrate Serbia into the regional security system while respecting its military neutrality. Growing partnerships in other areas like economy and energy serve as testaments to this effort and it is undeniable that there has been significant activity on both bilateral and multilateral levels to bring Serbia closer to the West. This progress isn't reflected in the public opinion, and that can be a significant threat in the long-term.

Direct engagement

One of the reasons why leaders like Vladimir Putin and Xi Jinping have a very good standing in Serbia is the fact that both have shown significant attention to Serbia through multiple visits leading vast delegations accompanied by directly addressing the Serbian population and sending strong messages of friendship. Of course, the situation on the ground didn't really warrant this demonstration of respect in the past, but recent developments in Serbian-American relations show that a sitting president's visit to Belgrade is just another step in cementing Serbia's status as the United States' key partner in the region. The need for an American president aligns with the present trend of world leaders’ frequent visits to Serbia, which we touched on thoroughly in a previous analysis.

Why is this so important?

As the U.S. seeks to counterbalance Russian and Chinese influence in the region, Serbia’s role as an economic partner is more critical than ever. An American president's visit wouldn't only show the Serbian people that the United States wants Serbia as an ally, it would also signal to the American investors that Serbia is a safe destination for large investments, as shown by attaining an investment-grade credit rating. The rich historical and cultural heritage of Serbian-American relations offers a large variety of causes to rally around, from humanitarian support during and after both world wars to significant Serbian-Americans like Nikola Tesla and Michael Pupin or sports, which both Serbian and American people have a passion for.

Bipartisan interest

Visiting Serbia would also fit in both presidential candidates’ agendas. Some of Donald Trump's closest associates like Richard Grenell have significant knowledge of the situation in the Western Balkans and are familiar with the region's leaders, and Hungary is among the first countries Donald Trump would visit in Europe due to his relationship with Victor Orban. Belgrade would be a logical next stop, especially considering Serbia's strong friendship with Hungary.

As President, Kamala Harris would have to pay significant attention to foreign policy because of several global challenges. As Harris didn't previously comment or work on American policy in the region, a clean slate would be a great opportunity to redefine the American approach to the Balkans in a changing world and score a foreign policy victory while maintaining the upwards trajectory in the Serbian-American relations observed during Joe Biden’s administration. Additionally, Harris wasn't involved in the events of the 1990s and that would make her significantly more likely to improve the United States’ perception in Serbia.