US-Serbia Strategic Dialogue

Proposal for establishing a strategic dialogue between the USA and Serbia
Summary and Key Points

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Authors

Lead Researcher:
Milan Krstić, University of Belgrade, Faculty of Political Sciences

Contributing Researchers:
Andrej Ševo, Institute for Philosophy and Social Theory
Mila Bjekić, Università Ca’ Foscari Venezia
Nina Avramovski, Georgetown University, Walsh School of Foreign Service
Petar Ivić, University of Belgrade, Faculty of Political Sciences

Editors:
Vuk Velebit, Pupin Initiative
Vladimir Milošević, Pupin Initiative
Andrej Cvejanov, Pupin Initiative

What is a strategic dialogue?

Strategic dialogue is a diplomatic tool of US foreign policy, entailing steady and continuous communication among state representatives on various topics, aiming at the long-term improvement of cooperation, equipped with instruments for implementing and monitoring the agreements. This practice resembles the strategic partnerships in Serbia’s Foreign policy.

Are there similar examples of cooperation in the foreign policy of the USA and Serbia?

Washington has established strategic dialogues with over 60 entities. Since 2021, a dialogue has been established with North Macedonia, the first state in the Western Balkans. On the other hand, Serbia has official strategic partnerships with 9 countries, the most developed being the one with the People’s Republic of China. These two examples can serve as a model for the cooperation between the USA and Serbia.

Benefits of initiating a strategic dialogue for the USA immediately:

• Balancing the influence of other major powers in the Western Balkans and Serbia;

• Maintaining stability in the Western Balkans through deepened cooperation with a key player in the region’s political dynamics;

• Deepening security cooperation with the military-strongest state in the Western Balkans, a major producer and purchaser of weapons;

• Improving the image of the USA in Serbia and among Serbs in the region;

• Potential economic gains for American companies from investments in Serbia, joint projects, and increased foreign trade.

Benefits of initiating a strategic dialogue for Serbia immediately

• Strengthening the international position by entering into strategic relations with Washington in addition to strategic partnerships with Beijing and Moscow, and a special relationship with Brussels, thus fully affirming its “4 pillars” foreign policy;

• Increasing Serbia’s political importance to the USA and the opportunity to further highlight and illustrate Serbia’s vital national interests in the dialogue with Washington;

• Creating favorable conditions for increasing economic cooperation and joint projects with the USA in fields of technological innovations, education, and infrastructure development;

• Deepened cooperation in the field of security, would reduce the risk of crisis in the region while preserving and further affirming Serbia’s military neutrality;

• Building additional ties between people and institutions in Serbia and the USA, to improve cooperation in the rule of law, education, science, arts, and sports;

Establishment of strategic dialogue

Strategic dialogue should be established with an inaugural meeting at the foreign ministry level. The key public outcome of the first meeting would be a joint statement specifying the key focus areas of the strategic dialogue, with the provision for regular meetings once a year.

Framework Areas of Cooperation

• Economic, Trade, and Technological Cooperation: enhancing trade exchange, encouraging American investments, joint infrastructure and technology projects…

• Security and Defense: information exchange on regional challenges, fostering mutual arms trade, cyber security cooperation, new military exercises…

• Regional Initiatives: joint work on regional economic integration and further development of the “Open Balkan” project, consideration of other regional forums…

• Energy and Environment: joint projects for diversifying energy sources in Serbia, improving the use of renewable energy sources…

• European Integration: discussion on Serbia’s progress towards the EU, possibilities for US logistical support especially in democratization and rule of law…

• Bilateral and Multilateral Political Cooperation: improving bilateral political relations, exchanging views on key issues in international forums…

• People to People Ties: concrete projects to increase citizen exchange, strategic efforts to connect people and institutions from Serbia and the USA (including the diaspora)...

Implementation of the strategic dialogue

It is necessary to form working groups that would be in regular communication, work on designing specific cooperation projects, and monitor their implementation. Further, it is crucial to agree on a concrete action plan with detailed goals and means for their achievement. Annual meetings at the ministerial or deputy ministerial level should serve to review progress in implementation and consider the principal goals of cooperation for the next period.

Clear and measurable goals should be set, for example:

• Economic, Trade, and Technological Cooperation

  • Increasing trade exchange by 10% annually;

  • Achieving an agreement on avoiding double taxation and eliminating remaining customs and non-tariff trade barriers;

  • Reactivating the office of the US International Development Finance Corporation (DFC) in Belgrade and starting the credit program agreed upon in 2020;

• Security and Defense

  • Holding a minimum of 3 joint military exercises annually;

  • Establishing a partnership between the Serbian Army and the Illinois National Guard;

  • Signing at least 3 major agreements between Serbian and American entities on the purchase and sale of military technology and weapons in the first three years;

• Bilateral and multilateral political cooperation

  • A visit by the President of the USA to Belgrade during the next term;

  • Co-sponsoring a resolution of mutual interest at the UN General Assembly;

  • Expanding the State Department’s training program to include three Serbian diplomats annually and establishing a Congressional and National Assembly exchange program;

• People-to-people Ties

  • Establishing a bilateral Fulbright commission for Serbia with joint funding;

  • Twinning Belgrade with Miami and New York as “sister cities”;

  • Additional visa facilitation for Serbian citizens (especially for students and participants in cultural and scientific cooperation) with a roadmap for the abolition of tourist visas;

Risk Management

The risks arising from the strategic dialogue are not substantial, however, it is important to minimize them further through a series of activities, the most relevant being transparent informing the public about the progress achieved by the strategic dialogue including its benefits for the citizens, and informing other partners of Serbia and USA that such cooperation does not threaten anyone.

The long-term goal of the dialogue

The ultimate goal of the strategic dialogue should be to evolve the cooperation into a comprehensive strategic partnership within the first decade of the dialogue’s formation. However, to reach this final goal, it is necessary to proceed gradually focusing on minimizing risks for both sides.

Road map in 10 steps

1. Step I: Obtaining consent from key US stakeholders for the start of the dialogue through Serbian diplomatic activities and lobbying;
   Tentative completion date: mid-2025

2. Step II: Activities by Serbia and the USA towards other partners, public opinion, and other political options to clarify the nature of the dialogue and reduce associated risks
   Tentative completion date: end of 2025

3. Step III: Negotiations on the establishment of the dialogue and its content (through embassies and direct meetings of officials)
   Tentative completion date: end of 2025

4. Step IV: Inaugural meeting of the US-Serbia strategic dialogue
   Tentative completion date: early 2026

5. Step V: Formation of working groups and implementation of action plans
   Tentative completion date: mid 2026

6. Step VI: Work of working groups on achieving set goals and defining new ones
   Ongoing activity

7. Step VII: Regular public reporting on dialogue results
   Ongoing activity

8. Step VIII: Regular coordination meetings between the two sides by sector to monitor progress, quarterly reporting on the state of implementation, with annual reports to the governments of both countries
   Ongoing activity

9. Step IX: Regular annual high-level meetings to review further cooperation and define new goals in line with changes in the domestic and international environments
   Ongoing activity

10. Step X: Establishing a comprehensive strategic partnership between Serbia and the USA
    Completion date: mid 2034