A Vision for Future Cooperation Between Serbia and the US

Date: November 14th 2024

Аuthors:
Vuk Velebit, Pupin Initiative
Andrej Cvejanov, Pupin Initiative
Petar Ivić, Pupin Initiative

Tectonic Shifts’ Impact on Balkans Policy

The entire world closely followed this year’s American elections, aware of their global implications. With Donald Trump’s return to the Oval Office, significant changes are emerging in U.S. foreign policy. These changes could be summed up in one sentence: the U.S. no longer wants to play the role of the world’s policeman but seeks reliable allies and partners fit to solve their own problems. However, at a moment when America wishes to turn inward, it finds itself drawn into two armed conflicts. Alongside quickly resolving them, it is essential to address the trade conflict with China, its major economic competitor.

A key shift in the American approach to global issues is the reduction of idealistic interventionism in other nations’ internal affairs to promote liberalism. Instead, a more isolationist stance is emerging, with a transactional approach toward other actors aimed to encourage responsibility in solving their own problems.

It is worth noting that President Trump’s desired changes could be implemented faster and easier than his predecessors’. Republicans now hold not only the presidency but also a majority in the Senate and the House of Representatives. Their control over the Supreme Court is also significant. Thus, in the next two years, intense engagement in foreign policy is expected, as the legislative majority could be lost in the midterm elections.

In this geopolitical climate, Serbia has the opportunity to further strengthen its relations with the US as it aligns with the profile of desirable American allies. Serbia is politically stable, enjoys significant economic growth, allocates sufficient defense funding, and most importantly, plays a crucial, positive role in stability and peace in the Western Balkans.

Greater Focus on Eastern Europe

The current situation, where the U.S. has largely assumed the role of a global policeman, especially in security, has provided stability for Western European countries, while also creating a certain dependence on American military and political power. The U.S. has extensively provided security for its NATO allies. However, the Trump administration has repeatedly emphasized that this model is unsustainable long-term and that European countries must take greater responsibility for their own defense. Trump has publicly stated that European countries cannot continue to rely on American military support without investing their own resources in regional security.

These rhetorical statements from Trump’s previous administration are expected to turn into concrete actions in his new term. The U.S. will likely insist on increasing NATO budgets and on greater involvement in joint military missions and exercises.

Furthermore, the European Union will face more pressure to enhance its common security and defense policy, which entails investing in the development of new joint military capacities and crisis management mechanisms. This area has traditionally been the greatest challenge to integration, but it will become a pressing issue due to anticipated U.S. actions.

The criticisms that the U.S. has for Western European nations do not apply to Eastern European allies. Countries like Poland, Hungary, Slovakia, Greece, and the Baltic states allocate adequate resources for defense and have geostrategic significance, acting as a “wall” against Russia. The administration’s focus is expected to shift to this region, given the similarity in mentality between Republicans and more conservative European parties, mutual sympathies, and greater ease of agreement compared to rigid, bureaucratic Brussels.

Factors Influencing Better Relations Between Serbia and the Trump Administration

Serbia, as a European country, shares qualities with America’s partners in Eastern Europe. Europe is not defended in Brussels but at its borders, and Eastern European countries, including Serbia, are foundational to the security of the continent, located on the front lines. Political elites in Eastern Europe exhibit a mentality of realism and transactionalism in international relations, similar to the anticipated American administration. Analyzing official visits to Belgrade over the past four years shows a significant increase in visits by Western representatives, signaling Serbia’s shift toward this side. Additionally, both sides are familiar with each other, having cooperated reasonably well during Trump’s previous term.

The U.S. administration has a good opportunity to engage Serbia as a key actor in peace and stability in the Western Balkans. If the US misses out on cooperation with Serbia, the region could experience a power vacuum, possibly filled by other forces such as Russia, China, and Germany. The first two are directly problematic for Western partners, while Germany’s influence, rigid and intolerant toward Serbia, could indirectly foster a turn toward the East.

Serbia and United States’ Mutual Interest

Cooperation with Serbia would allow the US to further strengthen stability in a region traditionally seen as unstable. Serbia, as a neutral state with 3.8% annual economic growth and defense spendings exceeding the desirable 2% of GDP, would work to further promote regional peace, stability, and cooperation.

In turn, Serbia would gain the world’s most powerful country as a credible partner. For this cooperation to succeed and prevent other powers from competing for influence, the U.S. should work on better understanding Serbia’s position. It would be essential to enhance America’s role in the dialogue between Belgrade and Pristina, the formation of the Community of Serb Municipalities, and the protection of the human rights of Serbs in Kosovo and Metohija from aggressive actions by Kurti’s administration. Pristina has not been a constructive actor in the dialogue with Belgrade for some time now, directly opposing American interests in the Balkans, thus sanctions against Albin Kurti are necessary.

Economy, Military and Energy as Main Areas of Cooperation

The primary area for cooperation lies in the economic sphere, specifically in attracting new American investments to Serbia, which would continue the positive trend bolstered by Serbia’s recent investment-grade credit rating.

Increasing military cooperation also holds great potential. There is potential to increase the trade of arms and ammunition, as both nations place high importance on their defense industries. Maintaining the trend of joint military exercises and further intensifying cooperation in this area is also important.

Energy, recently recognized through a strategic agreement, is another key area. Further U.S. investments in Serbian energy projects would have mutual significance, both commercially and politically. This would allow Serbia to diversify its energy sector, which was previously dominated by Russia.

As a symbol of rapprochement and intensified cooperation between the two countries, a high-level US visit to Serbia, preferably by President Trump, is desirable. This would end the long 45-year period since the last presidential visit, signaling a shift in the international situation, and further solidifying the partnership. There is a strong likelihood of Trump visiting Hungary, so a visit to Belgrade is feasible given its geographic proximity. Another favorable factor is that Trump has a 59% approval rating among the Serbian public.

Are Serbia’s Relations with China and Russia a Hindrance?

At first glance, Serbia’s relations with these countries may seem intense and potentially obstructive to cooperation with the U.S. Serbia is viewed as a traditional Russian ally in the region, and Chinese influence is also met with suspicion, given the current U.S. and EU trade conflict with China. However, a closer analysis of Serbia’s relationships with Russia and China leads to the opposite conclusion.

Firstly, cooperation with a certain power in one or more areas does not necessarily exclude collaboration with others. Numerous successful examples like India, Turkey, Brazil, and the UAE demonstrate that it is possible to maintain such a balanced foreign policy approach while preserving sovereignty and trust among all partners.

Regarding China, its cooperation with Serbia is limited to the economic sphere, involving joint projects and investments without political implications. China has not used its economic influence to push political agendas, thus, there is no obstacle to improve cooperation with the U.S. For instance, Hungary, with two and a half times more Chinese investments than Serbia, remains a reliable US partner.

With Russia, the situation is unequivocal. Since the beginning of the Ukraine war, there have been no visits from Russian officials to Serbia, and intensive cooperation is mainly in energy. However, as Serbia rapidly diversifies its energy sources, with U.S. collaboration, this too does not pose a barrier. On the contrary, it provides an additional argument for U.S. partnership, as this issue is being addressed with American assistance.

Recommendations for Serbia

Below are measures Serbia could take to further positively position itself in the eyes of the American administration and improve its reputation on the international stage:

• Organize a high-level US visit to Belgrade — preferably by President Trump, though a visit by the Vice President or Secretary of State would also be beneficial.

• Establish a strategic dialogue with the US — institutionalizing dialogue on key strategic issues at a high level.

• Regional cooperation — initiatives like Open Balkan, CEFTA, and other platforms signal a commitment to growth and collaboration.

• Regional alliances — cooperation with Hungary, Slovakia, Greece, and other European countries that will be in the administration’s focus.

• Further position Serbia as an actor of stability and peace in the region — public diplomacy projects toward relevant actors.

• Strengthen Serbia’s role as a driver of economic growth in the Western Balkans — continuing current fiscal and monetary policies, attracting Western investments, and enhancing bilateral and multilateral economic cooperation in the region.