The New Republican Senate Leadership’s Impact on Balkans Policy

Date: October 13th 2024

Author:
Danilo Nastić, Pupin Fellow 2024

Who will be the next Senate majority leader?

The race for the next Senate majority leader has intensified after Mitch McConnell's announcement that he will step down after nearly two decades in leadership. The main contenders include Whip John Thune of South Dakota, Senator John Cornyn of Texas, and Senator Rick Scott of Florida, each with varying levels of support from both the Republican conference and Trump-aligned figures.

Thune is seen as the establishment choice to succeed McConnell due to his experience and longstanding role within Senate leadership. However, his less-than-staunch support of Donald Trump has raised concerns among some Trump-aligned conservatives. He has support from high-profile senators such as Mike Rounds, Markwayne Mullin, and Steve Daines. Although Thune has shown little direct focus on Serbia, his pragmatic and moderate approach could pave the way for a balanced and stable continuation of Serbian-American relations if he prioritizes diplomatic consistency.

John Cornyn brings considerable fundraising abilities and past leadership experience as the former Senate Republican Whip. He has also tried to strengthen his relationship with Trump supporters but still faces skepticism due to his previous distancing from the former president. He is backed by Sen. Josh Hawley of Missouri, who is often associated with the MAGA wing of the GOP. Cornyn has previously supported legislation that aims to strengthen European stability, indicating that, as a majority leader, he might approach Serbian-American relations through a broader European lens, supporting NATO efforts while also considering Serbia's unique role in the Balkans.

Donald Trump’s choice - Rick Scott?

Rick Scott, who is seen as having the strongest support among Trump allies, has gained momentum and endorsements from figures such as Tucker Carlson, Elon Musk, and Vivek Ramaswamy. His conservative stance and previous challenge to McConnell in 2022 appeal to members seeking a new direction. Scott is endorsed by influential senators within Trump’s circle, including, Ron Johnson, Rand Paul, Tommy Tuberville, and more recently, Marco Rubio and Bill Hagerty. According to Time Magazine, Scott is positioning himself as Trump’s preferred choice. Donald Trump has yet to make an endorsement, while demanding that the next majority leader allow recess appointments to bypass confirmation votes and expedite the approval of his nominees. If Scott becomes the majority leader, his closer alignment with Trump could push for a foreign policy that emphasizes economic partnerships and mutual respect for sovereignty, potentially fostering a more favorable climate for Serbian-American cooperation.

The race has attracted significant attention from Trump-aligned figures outside the Senate, with Tucker Carlson and Elon Musk vocal about their support for Scott. However, because the leadership vote will occur via secret ballot within the Senate, it is uncertain how much these external endorsements will sway the outcome. Additionally, while Donald Trump himself has not endorsed a candidate, any eventual support from him could substantially influence the direction of the race.

This race will not only determine Senate leadership but also set the tone for Republican collaboration with the executive branch, especially if Trump secures the presidency. The choice of leader could impact the Republican legislative agenda, either aligning closely with Trump's vision or balancing Trump-aligned priorities with traditional Republican policies.

Donald Trump’s key allies in the Senate

Trump’s key allies in the Senate include Rick Scott, Josh Hawley, Ted Cruz, Tommy Tuberville, Rand Paul, Lindsey Graham, and Marco Rubio, who is reportedly being considered for Secretary of State.

Furthermore, if Marco Rubio is appointed Secretary of State, his foreign policy approach could bring a positive shift in Serbian-American relations. Known for his focus on global human rights and opposition to authoritarianism, Rubio has also shown a commitment to strengthening American partnerships in Europe, particularly in the Balkans. His appointment could signify renewed U.S. interest in Serbia as a strategic partner, enhancing collaboration in areas like economic development and regional stability while respecting Serbia's sovereignty and non-alignment stance.

Senator Rick Scott of Florida brings a conservative approach to foreign policy, often emphasizing national security and economic partnerships. His alignment with Trump’s "America First" principles suggests he would support a bilateral relationship based on mutual respect and sovereignty.

Josh Hawley and Rand Paul - Less commitments, more trade

Senator Josh Hawley of Missouri is an outspoken critic of U.S. involvement in overseas conflicts and is known for his skepticism toward globalism, favoring policies that place American interests first. His approach could impact Serbian-American relations, especially if he gains influence under a Trump-aligned Senate. His preference for limiting U.S. commitments abroad could mean a cautious approach to deepening ties with Serbia, although he would likely support trade relations that benefit both nations.

Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, also a Trump ally, is known for his isolationist stance and skepticism of U.S. military engagements abroad. If Paul has a more significant influence, Serbian-American relations might shift toward non-military cooperation, focusing instead on economic and cultural ties.

Proactive foreign policy voices close to Trump - Ted Cruz, Lindsey Graham, Tommy Tuberville

Senator Ted Cruz of Texas, another significant Trump ally, is a member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and has historically supported strengthening alliances that bolster American influence in strategic regions. Cruz's stance on Serbia is largely shaped by his advocacy for stronger U.S. positions in Eastern Europe, including supporting allies against Russian influence. Meanwhile, Senator Tommy Tuberville’s influence within Trump-aligned Senate circles means he could support Serbia as part of a broader strategy to foster alliances with non-NATO partners in Europe.

Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina is a senior member of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee and an influential voice on foreign policy, often advocating for a robust U.S. presence abroad. While a Trump ally, Graham has shown more flexibility in supporting alliances and interventions that he believes benefit U.S. interests. His views on Serbia align with the broader goal of ensuring stability in the Balkans as a counterweight to Russian influence. As an experienced member of the Foreign Relations Committee, Graham could advocate for policies that increase U.S. diplomatic and economic engagement with Serbia, aiming to support its stability and potential as a strategic partner.

Importance of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee

The Senate Foreign Relations Committee plays a crucial role in shaping U.S. foreign policy. Senators like Ted Cruz and Lindsey Graham, who are on this committee, have a direct influence on the legislative agenda related to foreign policy, including Serbia. If these senators champion Serbia’s role as a stable, independent ally in the Balkans, it could lead to more focused diplomatic and economic engagement, enhancing Serbian-American relations in trade, regional stability, and defense initiatives.

With Republicans taking control of the Senate, the chairmanship of the Foreign Relations Committee is likely to shift to Senator Jim Risch of Idaho, who previously served as the committee's chair from 2019 to 2021. Risch is known for his focus on countering authoritarian influence globally and has been a strong advocate for U.S. alliances in Europe. Under his leadership, the committee may place a renewed emphasis on strengthening ties with European partners, including Serbia.