The World is Knocking at Serbia's Door

Аuthors:
Andrej Cvejanov, Pupin Initiative
Petar Ivić, Pupin Initiative

Who is coming to Serbia?

For some time, news in Serbia has been dominated by visits from foreign leaders and the circumstances surrounding them. Interpretations vary—some critics see the presence of foreign leaders as opposition to Serbia's interests. On the other hand, increased interest from Europe and the rest of the world in Serbia can be viewed as part of a broader process and an indicator of significant changes in Serbian foreign policy, as well as a strengthening of Serbia's position globally.

Global Context

To begin with, it is necessary to consider changes occurring on a global level. The BRICS summit in Kazan was a significant event for the world, as it demonstrated a willingness among certain world leaders to gather around Russia at a time when the rift between Russia and the West has never been greater. While Aleksandar Vulin, a minister on the sidelines of the Serbian government, represented Serbia in Kazan, European flags flew in Belgrade. The Prime Ministers of Poland and Greece, Donald Tusk and Kyriakos Mitsotakis, arrived in Belgrade, followed two days later by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen. All three European leaders, as well as representatives of Serbia, speak of Serbia’s intention to join the EU as if it were set in stone, and along with numerous visits, there is an active effort for Serbia to draw closer to Europe on its own.

The De Facto End of the Alliance with Russia

This is not surprising but rather part of a broader process that, with all its twists and obstacles, has been ongoing since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Serbia’s previously balanced foreign policy has been jeopardized, and its room for maneuver has been significantly reduced due to the polarization of the international order that followed. When considering visits before the war in Ukraine, what stands out most are the visits by Russian state officials. Visits from Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev, and Lukashenko drew significant attention, and Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov, among other high-ranking Russian officials, also visited Belgrade. The partnership between the two countries was visible at the highest level and accepted as an integral part of Serbian foreign policy, but since the start of the invasion of Ukraine, there has been a rapid cooling. High-ranking Russian officials have not visited Serbia, unlike tens of thousands of Russians and countless Russian companies that have relocated to Serbian cities. Minister without Portfolio Aleksandar Vulin has “carried the burden” of Serbian-Russian relations since the invasion began, with visits to Russia, incendiary rhetoric, and minimal responsibility in the current government. Vučić and Putin have had no interactions except for a recent phone call primarily discussing the supply of Russian gas, on which several European countries depend.

China Fills the Void

The decline in relations with Russia “on the ground” has been somewhat offset by the fact that Serbia has not imposed sanctions on Russia, and there is a widespread but inaccurate narrative of Serbia as an ally of Russia. On the other hand, China somewhat fills the vacuum as a counterbalance to the West, best illustrated by the visit of President Xi Jinping with a delegation of hundreds of officials in the spring of 2024. Serbia remains more than interested in cooperation in trade and business, but despite its visibility and popularity, China does not represent a significant factor in the direction of Serbian foreign policy.

Strong Cooperation with the Region

One aspect that remains constant before and after the war in Ukraine is the large number of visits by regional leaders. Presidents and prime ministers of Hungary and Montenegro have frequently come to Serbia. Hungary is an important partner for Serbia, demonstrated by frequent visits both before and after the war in Ukraine, with this relationship centered on border security, economic cooperation, and the Hungarian minority in Vojvodina. On the other hand, relations between Serbia and Montenegro have been on the rise since 2020 and the fall of Milo Đukanović’s DPS government, with visits to Belgrade by Zdravko Krivokapić, Dritan Abazović, and Jakov Milatović.

Turkey's Increasing Presence

Another frequent visitor to Belgrade is Recep Tayyip Erdogan, President of Turkey. He has visited Serbia four times in the last seven years. Turkey aims to position itself as an influential player in the Balkans, supporting both Muslim communities in the region and fostering economic cooperation. Erdogan’s visits to Serbia have included a major business forum in Belgrade and the opening of a mosque in Novi Pazar. Turkey is significant to Serbia for various reasons—trade, transit, tourism, and its substantial role in Kosovo and Metohija, Sandžak, Bosnia and Herzegovina, and Albania. Good relations with Turkey are essential for Serbia as a key guarantor of stability in the Western Balkans, and cooperation with the broader Islamic world is equally important. In recent months, there have been several attacks by Wahhabi terrorists in the region, which serves as a reminder for Serbia of the necessity of maintaining friendly and peaceful relations with all actors who can influence Muslim communities in Serbia and the region. This underscores the importance of frequent visits to Belgrade by leaders like Erdogan and bin Zayed.

European Leaders in Belgrade

Since the outbreak of the war in Ukraine, the sudden increase in the number of European leaders visiting Serbia has been most noticeable. In the years before the war, notable visits included those from European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, French President Emmanuel Macron, former German Chancellor Angela Merkel, and Italian Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte. In a short time since the war began, Macron returned to Serbia with agreements on Rafales and nuclear energy; von der Leyen has visited Belgrade multiple times, and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni also attracted attention with their visits. Leaders from all major EU countries have come to Serbia, including the prime ministers of Poland and Spain, Donald Tusk and Pedro Sánchez. Even smaller EU member states have not lagged—visits have been recorded from the presidents of Austria and Cyprus and Greek Prime Minister Mitsotakis. It is evident that more EU countries wish to see Serbia as a new member as soon as possible. Viktor Orbán positions himself as one of Serbia’s key allies on its EU path, and after multiple visits to Belgrade and Vojvodina, he recently met with Serbian President Vučić and Slovak Prime Minister Fico at a trilateral summit. Hungary and Slovakia want to see Serbia as part of the EU, as Vučić represents a natural ally in Europe due to ideological and practical similarities. In the week following the summit of the three leaders, Hungarian President Tamás Szujók visited Belgrade and emphasized that Hungary will do everything it can to ensure Serbia joins the EU as soon as possible.

The World’s Interest in Serbia

Interest in Serbia is not growing only in Europe but also in the rest of the world. In recent years, President of the UAE Mohammed bin Zayed and President of Israel Isaac Herzog have both visited Belgrade on multiple occasions. Notable visits from the presidents of India, Egypt, and Indonesia have also been recorded, along with visits from officials from several African countries. One reason for this is the increased engagement of Serbian diplomacy, which, following Marko Đurić’s appointment as Foreign Minister, has ramped up its activities. Given Serbia’s rich non-aligned policy legacy and readiness for economic cooperation, it is expected that the trend of visits from representatives of Global South countries will continue.

A Notable Absence

In the past five years, some of the world’s most significant leaders, such as Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping, Emmanuel Macron, Ursula von der Leyen, Scholz, Meloni, and Erdogan, have visited Serbia. These are presidents and prime ministers of all world powers relevant to Serbia except one—the United States. Numerous high-ranking U.S. officials have visited Serbia—Assistant Secretary of State for Europe James O’Brien has been to Belgrade twice this year, and Under Secretary for Economic Growth, Energy, and Environment Jose Fernandez and former Assistant Secretary for Public Diplomacy, Elizabeth Allen, who is now Chief of Staff in Tim Walz’s vice-presidential campaign, have also visited. However, a visit from an American president, regardless of party, has the potential to lay the foundation for a higher level of partnership between Serbia and the U.S.

A Shift Toward Europe

European integration can ultimately be identified as the central theme underlying the increasingly frequent visits of European officials to Serbia. After a long period of stagnation, which caused fatigue in Serbia, an acceleration in the EU accession process is emerging. Serbia is ready for this—European reforms are at the core of the Serbian government’s program, while on the other side, there is an evident desire among several European countries for Serbia to join Europe as soon as possible. In this context, the visits are not merely performative but are a means of conveying the message that Serbia’s place is in the EU.

The Ball Is in Our Court

Serbia has not seen times when so many doors were open before it as it does today. With the growing multipolarity of the international order, Serbia’s unique position and circumstances are gaining significance, which must be utilized. Beyond joining the EU and increasing integration with the West, to which Serbia belongs, strong connections with the rest of the world, especially the developing Global South, can help Serbia strengthen its international standing. Open doors may not even be the best metaphor, as the numerous visits show that the world is knocking on Serbia’s door.