Where is Serbia headed?

Serbia is often labeled as a Russian proxy, anti-Western, and a backward country by Balkan watchers who try to preserve narratives from the past. Others claim Serbia has betrayed Russia, is sitting on the fence, and is an opportunistic country. Meanwhile, the Serbian government proclaims that Serbia is an independent, neutral, and sovereign state.

But what do the facts say? To uncover the truth, follow the money. In Serbia's case, you can also follow the infrastructure. Roads, railways, flights – all major infrastructure projects are steering Serbia away from Russia and towards the West. This direction is not arbitrary, as following the people also reveals that Serbs are heading West for work and education.

Infrastructure: New railways, highways and flights connecting Serbia to the West

Currently, the construction of the high-speed railway between Belgrade and Budapest is underway, aiming to reduce travel time between the capitals of Serbia and Hungary to just two and a half hours. 

This railway project is a perfect illustration of Serbia's direction. Although Chinese companies are building the railroad and profiting from it, the ultimate result will be Serbia developing stronger ties to Europe and the West. 

The EU has directly supported the reconstruction of the railway connecting Belgrade to Niš, the biggest city in Southern Serbia, which will cut travel time on this route to one hour and 40 minutes. This will pave the way for connecting with Greece, enabling train travel from Belgrade to Thessaloniki and Athens.

When examining the public narrative after the adoption of the UN resolution on Srebrenica, it might seem that Bosnia and Herzegovina is on the brink of conflict, reminiscent of the sentiments from the 1990s. However, Serbia and Bosnia and Herzegovina are rebuilding bridges over the Drina river and working on securing EU funding for the reconstruction of the Belgrade-Sarajevo railway, with Serbia also planning to construct a highway connecting it to Bosnia and Herzegovina. 

Next year, a direct flight between Belgrade and Miami is expected to launch, adding to the existing direct flights from Belgrade to Chicago and New York, which are the only direct flights to the USA from the region. The "Constantine the Great" Airport in Niš is soon to open a new terminal with a capacity of one and a half million passengers annually. There are also increasing seasonal flights to popular European destinations, indicating that Serbia's air traffic will become even busier in the future.

Energy: Diversifying away from Russia with Western help 

When it comes to the independence of a country, in this case, Serbia, a key factor is energy. Dependence on Russian gas has long been one of the biggest obstacles to Serbia's true self-sufficiency, and the current situation indicates that diversification to reduce this dependency is a national priority.

Last year, with EU support, a gas interconnector was built connecting Serbia and Bulgaria, capable of meeting up to 60% of Serbia's natural gas demand. The construction of a gas pipeline linking Belgrade and Banja Luka has also been agreed upon, marking a significant step towards energy diversification in the region.

Serbia's energy independence would be further elevated by the construction of a nuclear power plant. A strategic partnership between Serbia and France in the field of nuclear energy could be a turning point for Serbia and the Western Balkans. 

Europe needs a reliable but also affordable source of critical raw materials such as copper and lithium, which are not separated by vast oceans and continents. This presents a geostrategic opportunity for Serbia, as the potential for developing battery and automobile production in Europe offers security in an extremely uncertain supply chain.

Security: Fostering partnerships with the common goal of safe Western Balkans 

There is no doubt about Serbia's alignment when it comes to security. Serbia regularly conducts joint military exercises with Western countries and fosters growing partnerships and cooperation with the EU and the USA, aiming to enhance and modernize its military and contribute to peace and stability in the region..

Yes, Serbia has not recognized the independence of a part of its territory declared unilaterally without regard for the Serbian position. But despite this and all the obstacles, it continues to strive for the normalization of relations, the preservation of peace, and a shared future for the region within the EU. 

Attention must be drawn to all the segments in which Serbia is working to make itself an integral part of the European security, energy, and infrastructure system, as dominant narratives and frequent hyperbole suggest otherwise. It seems that it is not a question of where Serbia is heading, as the facts clearly show that Serbia is irrevocably getting closer to the West.

Vuk Velebit